Press Release - July 2018

Genesis India Consumer Indicator 62.44 in July compared with 60.00 in June Consumers postpone purchases ahead of cut in GST

The Genesis India Consumer Indicator (GICI) rose to 62.44 in July from 60.00 in June, marking a new record high in the series.

The latest rise in consumer confidence was mainly due to a continued improvement in sentiment about future prospects for both business conditions and household finances. There were also smaller increases in sentiment towards current personal finances and current business conditions.

The only component of the GICI to decrease in July was durable buying conditions, which measures whether respondents viewed it as a good time to buy durable goods. The fall to the lowest since February, appears to be due to the introduction of GST cuts on July 27 after our survey finished. Evidence that respondents were postponing purchases to benefit from lower prices later came in the form of a large rise in respondents planning to purchase consumer durables over the coming three months, to a new record high.

The percentage of respondents in July who shopped online in the previous three months fell to 35%, down from 37% in the previous two months and from 39% in April. This decline also looks to be due to consumers putting off purchasing due to the cuts to GST. The percentage of those buying household goods online declined to just 9% in July compared with 21% two months ago.

In response to a special question this month, 15% of respondents said they were planning a leisure trip in the coming three months. We estimate that domestic spending on travel will account for some Rs. 1.65 trillion over the coming three months across India as a whole, a significant portion of GDP. International spending on travel is expected to total around Rs. 1.2 trillion.


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Philiph Uglow (Chief Economist,London)
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Suseem Dhaneshwar (Manager,International Business Development)
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